In the extreme, who Last Database would have won if none of Pérez's votes had become null? The answer: Arauz. It is due to the massive invalid vote that Arauz, having had a considerable advantage of 13 percentage points over Lasso, grows very modestly in the percentage of valid votes in all provinces between the first and second rounds. Lasso, for his part, obtains slightly more Last Database votes than expected (that is, assuming several reasonable assumptions regarding the votes of the other candidates), but grows considerably in the percentage of valid votes in all provinces between the first and second rounds. of the presidential elections. A comment to finish. What has been said here does not ignore the merit or effectiveness of Lasso's campaign in Last Database the weeks prior to the elections, the failures of Arauz's campaign, or any of the endless list of factors that contributed to the final result. On the contra.
All we do is Last Database point out what is, perhaps, the most immediate mechanical reason in the causal sense that explains Lasso's victory, given the results that we observe. On the other hand, any reading of political economy or of another type that attributes the defeat of the progressive candidate to the trend towards the right in the South American regional context, the destruction of the notion of what is public in Ecuador due to the absence of government during the administration de Moreno, the collusion of the media conglomerates to favor the right-wing candidate, the tricks of the Last Database campaign managers during the electoral season, etc., surely have a lot of explanatory merit.
However, the same readings would have been valid if Arauz had won, and the only reason he did not win was due to the immediate and mechanical influence of the massive invalid vote on the electoral results. Therefore, theotes? In the extreme, who would have won if Last Database none of Pérez's votes had become null? The answer: Arauz. It is due to the massive invalid vote that Arauz, having had a considerable advantage of 13 percentage points over Lasso, grows very modestly in the percentage of valid votes in all provinces between the first and second rounds.